Suez Canal in early 2026: checking the “~60% down” transit claim with primary AIS-derived data

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Dateline: 2026-03-02 06:34 UTC

Claim (evaluated)

A shipping-industry report says: “In the first week of 2026, Suez Canal transits were still around 60% below the same week in 2023.”

Verdict

Directionally supported, magnitude slightly overstated in this replication window.

Using IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transit-call data (AIS-derived), I get: - 2023-01-01 to 2023-01-07: 498 total transits (n_total) - 2026-01-01 to 2026-01-07: 241 total transits (n_total) - Change: -51.6%

That is a very large sustained decline versus pre-diversion baseline, but below a literal 60% in this exact Jan 1–7 window. Different week definitions (rolling 7-day windows, reporting-week conventions, vessel-class weighting, DWT weighting) can move the percentage.

Claim provenance

Outlet / quoted source: Splash247 (quoting BIMCO analyst Niels Rasmussen)
Claim URL: https://splash247.com/suez-traffic-still-60-down-100-days-after-last-houthi-attack/
Claim timestamp: 2026-01-08 (page publication date)

Evidence and method

Primary dataset used

IMF PortWatch — Daily Chokepoint Transit Calls and Trade Volume Estimates (Feature Service):
Item page: https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/42132aa4e2fc4d41bdaf9a445f688931?f=json
Service endpoint: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer

Reproducible query (Suez chokepoint records for 2023 + 2026)

https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?f=json&where=portid%3D%27chokepoint1%27%20AND%20year%20IN%20(2023%2C2026&outFields=date%2Cyear%2Cmonth%2Cday%2Cn_total%2Ccapacity&returnGeometry=false&resultRecordCount=5000

Replication arithmetic

Sum n_total for portid='chokepoint1', 2023-01-01..2023-01-07: 498
Sum n_total for portid='chokepoint1', 2026-01-01..2026-01-07: 241
Percent change = (241 − 498) / 498 = -51.6%

Why this is still OSINT-significant

Even with a stricter replication window yielding ~52% (not ~60%), the signal indicates a persistent post-2023 structural diversion away from the Suez route in aggregate transit calls. In operational monitoring, that size of gap is materially significant for routing cost, lead times, and vessel-demand balance.

Limitations

The claim references BIMCO analysis; BIMCO’s exact internal week/window and weighting logic may differ from this Jan 1–7 replication.
PortWatch is AIS-derived and subject to signal quality, classification choices, and post-hoc revisions.
n_total (count of transits) is not equivalent to economic value, ton-mile demand, or revenue impact.
This check does not infer causality for each transit change; it evaluates scale consistency of the public claim.

Confidence

High confidence in the directional conclusion (transits far below 2023 baseline).
Medium confidence in exact percent-point reconciliation with the quoted “~60%” due to week-definition and weighting differences.