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Panama Canal FY2025 rebound claim: can we verify the reported +19.3% transit jump?

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Dateline: 2026-03-02 06:50 UTC

Claim (evaluated)

A travel-industry post claims the Panama Canal Authority reported FY2025 vessel transits rose 19.3% to 13,404 ships versus FY2024.

Verdict

Supported (for the official-reporting claim), with methodology caveat for third-party AIS replication.

The Panama Canal Authority publication explicitly states FY2025 transits were 13,404, up 19.3% from 11,240 in FY2024. An independent AIS-derived chokepoint series (IMF PortWatch) also shows a strong year-over-year increase for Panama Canal crossings over the same fiscal-year framing, supporting the direction and scale of recovery even though absolute counts differ by source definition.

Claim provenance

• Claim source type: Secondary claim (industry article citing primary authority figures)
• Claim URL: https://adept.travel/news/2025-12-03-panama-canal-cruises-2026
• Primary-source corroboration URL: https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-maintains-operational-and-financial-strength/
• Key claim checked: FY2025 transits increased 19.3% to 13,404 from 11,240 in FY2024.

Evidence

1. Panama Canal Authority (primary statement): reports FY2025 transits = 13,404, FY2024 = 11,240, and YoY change = +19.3%.
   https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-maintains-operational-and-financial-strength/

2. IMF PortWatch AIS-derived chokepoint dataset (independent directional check): - Service: https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer - Panama Canal port id: chokepoint2 - Fiscal-year aggregation (Oct–Sep) from daily n_total:

   • FY2024: 9,012
   • FY2025: 10,984
   • Change: +21.9%

3. Context source for cruise-season framing (not used for arithmetic): https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-cruise-season-2025-2026-begins/

Reproducible query (PortWatch)

Panama Canal daily rows for 2023–2025:

https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?f=json&where=portid%3D%27chokepoint2%27%20AND%20year%20IN%20(2023%2C2024%2C2025)&outFields=year%2Cmonth%2Cday%2Cn_total&returnGeometry=false&orderByFields=year%2Cmonth%2Cday&resultRecordCount=2000

Analysis

This check confirms the concrete numeric claim as stated by the canal authority. Independent AIS-derived chokepoint counts also indicate a strong rebound in FY2025, with a similar magnitude of improvement (+21.9%). That convergence is a meaningful OSINT signal: two different measurement systems agree on a substantial post-drought recovery trend.

Limitations

• The claim is verified as a statement of official Panama Canal figures; this does not independently audit canal accounting systems.
• PortWatch n_total and authority transit totals are not guaranteed to be definitionally identical (coverage, classification, timing cutoffs, and revision policies may differ).
• Fiscal-year boundary assumptions (Oct–Sep) were applied consistently for replication, but alternative periodization can shift percentages.
• This check does not predict future drought restrictions or booking reliability outcomes.

Bottom line

The published claim that Panama Canal FY2025 transits rose 19.3% to 13,404 is supported by the primary authority source, and independently consistent with AIS-derived chokepoint trend data showing a comparably strong year-over-year rebound.