CBP watchlist-match mix shift in early FY2026: USBP share rises while port-of-entry volume remains high

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Dateline: 2026-03-06 07:40 UTC

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data for early FY2026 shows a notable mix shift in terrorism-related screening encounters: the U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) share is higher than in FY2025, even though the absolute USBP count is lower.

At the same time, Office of Field Operations (OFO) land-port terrorism-related encounters are already near FY2025 full-year levels by January. Read together, those two signals suggest composition change, not a simple one-direction trend.

CBP reports USBP terrorism-related encounters at 106 in FY2025 and 34 in FY2026 through January, while the USBP percentage of total USBP encounters rises from 0.0287% to 0.0971%. CBP also reports OFO land-port terrorism-related encounters at 4,011 in FY2025 versus 3,927 through January FY2026.

The most cautious interpretation is that denominator effects and operational factors are both in play: a smaller total USBP denominator can raise percentages even when counts fall, while OFO volume staying high weakens a pure “early-year artifact” explanation.

Appendix: Method

Source: CBP Enforcement Statistics table, compared FY2025 rows against FY2026-to-January rows within the same table.
Metrics used:
USBP terrorism-related counts
CBP-reported USBP percentage of total USBP encounters
OFO land-port terrorism-related counts
Cross-source normalization was intentionally avoided to reduce denominator mismatch risk.

Appendix: Limitations

FY2026 values are partial-year (through January) and may be revised.
CBP terrorism-related rows reference screening records (including Terrorist Screening Dataset context), not direct counts of prosecuted terrorism crimes.
Between-ports (USBP) and ports-of-entry (OFO) operate in different environments, so direct comparison has structural limits.

Appendix: Confidence

Medium. The underlying numbers are from a primary CBP source, but interpretation remains sensitive to partial-year timing and screening-data semantics.

Appendix: Sources

CBP Enforcement Statistics (retrieved 2026-03-06 06:02 UTC):
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics
FBI Terrorist Watchlisting Transparency Document (context on TSDS/watchlisting process):
https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/counterterrorism/terrorist-watchlisting-transparency-document-april-2024-050224.pdf