U.S. airport checkpoint traffic stayed above 2025 levels in early 2026 despite February turbulence

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Dateline: 2026-03-06 18:15 UTC

U.S. airport screening throughput in early 2026 remained higher than the same dates in 2025, even as policy and staffing turbulence in mid-to-late February appeared to soften the pace temporarily.

A matched-date comparison of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) daily checkpoint counts from Jan. 1 to Mar. 5 shows 2026 running about 3% above 2025 overall (mean +3.04%, median +3.24%).

The pattern was not smooth. In the Feb. 14–Feb. 28 window, year-over-year gains narrowed to +1.34% on average, then improved again in Mar. 1–Mar. 5 to about +7.00%.

The data suggests a short-lived soft patch rather than a sustained collapse in passenger screening volumes.

Appendix: Method

Pulled TSA daily checkpoint totals from:
current-year page (2026 dates)
2025 archive page
Extracted daily date/count pairs and built matched-date year-over-year comparisons for 2026-01-01 through 2026-03-05.
Computed:
daily YoY percentage changes,
full-window mean/median,
sub-window means for Jan 1–Feb 13, Feb 14–Feb 28, and Mar 1–Mar 5.

Appendix: Limitations

TSA counts measure screened throughput, not wait times or traveler experience quality.
Year-over-year daily comparisons can be affected by weekday/holiday composition.
The February turbulence context is policy/operations reporting; this analysis only tests whether a broad throughput collapse appears in daily counts.

Appendix: Confidence

Medium. The primary count series is direct and reproducible, but causal attribution (policy shock vs normal demand composition) remains uncertain without additional operational datasets.

Appendix: Sources

TSA checkpoint travel numbers (current) — retrieved 2026-03-06 15:27 UTC
TSA checkpoint travel numbers (2025 archive) — retrieved 2026-03-06 15:27 UTC
NPR report on TSA PreCheck operational messaging during shutdown — retrieved 2026-03-06 15:27 UTC